A simple approach to soil loss prediction: a revised Morgan–Morgan–Finney model

A revised version of the Morgan–Morgan–Finney model for prediction of annual soil loss by water is presented. Changes have been made to the way soil particle detachment by raindrop impact is simulated, which now takes account of plant canopy height and leaf drainage, and a component has been added for soil particle detachment by flow. When tested against the same data set used to validate the original version at the erosion plot scale, predictions made with the revised model gave slopes of a reduced major-axis regression line closer to 1.0 when compared with measured values. The coefficient of efficiency, for sites with measured runoff and soil loss, increased from 0.54 to 0.65. When applied to a new data set for erosion plots in Denmark, Spain, Greece and Nepal, very high coefficients of efficiency of 0.94 for runoff and 0.84 for soil loss were obtained. The revised version was applied to two small catchments by dividing them into land elements and routing annual runoff and sediment production over the land surface from one element to another. The results indicate that, when used in this way, the model provides useful information on the source areas of sediment, sediment delivery to streams and annual sediment yield.     

园林石峰与造型艺术

本文根据较为丰富的史料,从造型艺术的美学角度出发,阐述园林石峰的造型艺术价值、品石标准、园林石峰与诗画之间的关系以及历代诗画名人嗜石成癖与搜罗奇峰异石的种种趣事。     

Modelling the interactions between phenology and insecticide resistance genes in the codling moth Cydia pomonella

In the codling moth Cydia pomonella (L), insecticide resistance genes have been associated with pleiotropic effects affecting phenology. In this paper, we investigated whether an increase in the frequency of insecticide resistance in field populations of C pomonella was likely to entail significant divergences in the temporal occurrence of both susceptible and insecticide-resistant individuals. For this purpose, we built a phenological model that provided suitable predictions of the distinct and diverging seasonal evolutions of populations of a susceptible and two insecticide-resistant (at two and three loci) homozygous genotypes of C pomonella. Model simulations for each genotype were further compared with pheromone trap catches recorded in a field insecticide-treated population over an 8-year period (from 1992 to 2000), which reflected the progressive annual increase in the frequency of resistance in southeastern France. We found a significant delay in field adult emergence relative to those predicted by the homozygous susceptible model, and the magnitude of such a delay was positively correlated with increasing frequencies of insecticide resistance in the sampled field population of C pomonella. Adult emergence predicted in the theoretical population that was homozygous for resistance at two loci converged with those recorded in the field during the investigated 8-year period. This suggested that the pleiotropic effects of resistance were likely to result in a significant phenological segregation of insecticide-resistant alleles in the field. The results of this study emphasized the potential for pest populations exposed to chemical selection to evolve qualitatively with respect to phenology. This may raise critical questions regarding the use of phenological modelling as a forecasting tool for appropriate resistance management strategies that would take into account the diverging seasonal evolutions of both insecticide resistance and susceptibility.     

Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.     

A longitudinal study to identify constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in Northern Vietnam

The objective of the study was to investigate constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in northern Vietnam, one of the target areas of the Vietnam government's dairy development programme. A total of 99 dairy farms (11 per commune) were recruited from 9 of 32 communes in Ba Vi District, using random two-stage cluster sampling. After the initial questionnaire interviews were conducted, farms were visited at three monthly intervals over a period of 1 year. Information on several health and production parameters relating to the study cattle was collected. Using multiple indicator modelling, it was found that Fasciola infestation, farmers who had been involved in dairying for longer (not indicative of better management skills), larger herd size, and cattle being kept in a shed were linked to reduced reproductive performances.     

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modelling of Danofloxacin in Turkeys

Colibacillosis is a systemic disease responsible for important economic losses in poultry breeding; fluoroquinolones, including danofloxacin, are used to treat diseased animals. The purpose of the present study was to estimate pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) surrogates for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity and bacterial elimination against Escherichia coli O78/K80, using a PK-PD approach, for danofloxacin in turkeys after oral administration. Eight healthy turkeys, breed BUT 9, were included in a two-way crossover study. The drug was administered intravenously (i.v.) and orally at a dose rate of 6 mg/kg bw. The values of the elimination half-life and the total body clearance after i.v. administration were 8.64 ± 2.35 h and 586.76 ± 136.67 ml kg^-1h^-1, respectively. After oral administration, the values of the absolute bioavailability and the elimination half-life were 78.37± 17.35% and 9.74± 2.93 h, respectively. The minimum inhibitory concentration against the investigated strain in turkey serum was 0.25 μg/ml, four times higher than in broth. The lowest effective ex vivo AUC₂₄/MIC ratios required for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity, and total killing of E. coliO78/K80 were 0.416 h, 1.9 h and 6.73 h, respectively. The oral dose of 6 mg/kg used in the present study could be interpreted as being sufficient to eliminate E. coli with an MIC 0.25 μ g/ml. However, considering the demand that antimicrobial resistance should be avoided by complete bacterial elimination, PK-PD considerations suggest that an even higher dose of 32 mg/kg per day or 0.7 mg/kcal per day should be evaluated in clinical trials.     

Ecdysteroid receptor docking suggests that dibenzoylhydrazine-based insecticides are devoid of any deleterious effect on the parasitic wasp Psyttalia concolor (Hym. Braconidae)

BACKGROUND: The moulting accelerating compounds (MACs) or ecdysteroid agonists represent a selective group of insecticides acting upon binding to the ecdysteroid receptor (EcR) and leading to lethal premature moulting in larval stages and aborted reproduction in adults. Psyttalia concolor Szèpl. is a useful parasitic wasp attacking important tephritid pests such as the medfly and olive fruit fly. RESULTS: Contact and oral exposure in the laboratory of female parasitic wasps to the dibenzoylhydrazine‐based methoxyfenozide, tebufenozide and RH‐5849 did not provoke negative effects. No mortality and no reduction in beneficial capacity were observed. The ligand‐binding domain (LBD) of the EcR of P. concolor was sequenced, and a homology protein model was constructed which confirmed a cavity structure with 12 α‐helices, harbouring the natural insect moulting hormone 20‐hydroxyecdysone. However, a steric clash occurred for the MAC insecticides owing to a restricted extent of the ligand‐binding cavity of the PcLBD‐EcR, while they did dock well in that of susceptible insects. CONCLUSIONS: The insect toxicity assays demonstrated that MACs are selective for P. concolor. The modelling/docking experiments are indications that these insecticides do not bind with the LBD‐EcR of P. concolor and support the theory that they show no biological effects in the parasitic wasp. These data may help in explaining the compatible use of MACs together with parasitic wasps in IPM programmes. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry     

Derivation of stumpage value and logging costs for individual forest stands using aerial photographs and cartographic modelling

A procedure for calculation of stumpage value and logging costs of individual mature forest stands using aerial photo‐interpretation and a grid‐based geographical information system (GIS) is presented. The stumpage value may be computed from characteristics related to the trees, i.e. site index, stand mean height, crown closure, and tree species distribution, using price equations. By means of cost equations, the logging costs may be calculated from the tree characteristics and the terrain characteristics of slope gradient and skidding distance. The practical application of the procedure was demonstrated by a case study in a 710 ha forest area in southern Norway. The tree characteristics were determined by photo‐interpretation of individual stands. Skid paths for wood transportation from the stands to landings along the forest roads were delineated by photo‐interpretation of the ground conditions. Slope and skidding distances were derived by a digital elevation model and cartographic modelling. Finally, the photo‐interpreted tree characteristics and the computed slope and skidding distances were used for calculation of the stumpage value and the logging costs of each stand. According to previous tests, the accuracy of the procedure corresponded to the accuracy that could be achieved by the field‐survey methods used most frequently.     

Community-based alternative breeding plans for indigenous sheep breeds in four agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia

Based on the results of participatory approaches to define traits in the breeding objectives, four scenarios of ram selection and ram use were compared via deterministic modelling of breeding plans for community-based sheep breeding programmes in four diverse agro-ecological regions of Ethiopia. The regions (and production systems) were Afar (pastoral/agro-pastoral), Bonga and Horro (both mixed crop-livestock) and Menz (sheep-barley). The schemes or scenarios differed in terms of selection intensity and duration of ram use. The predicted genetic gains per year in yearling weight (kilograms) were comparable across the schemes but differed among the breeds and ranged from 0.399 to 0.440 in Afar, 0.813 to 0.894 in Bonga, 0.850 to 0.940 in Horro, and 0.616 to 0.699 in Menz. The genetic gains per year in number of lambs born per ewe bred ranged from 0.009 to 0.010 in both Bonga and Horro. The predicted genetic gain in the proportion of lambs weaned per ewe joined was nearly comparable in all breeds ranging from 0.008 to 0.011. The genetic gain per year in milk yield of Afar breed was in the order of 0.018 to 0.020 kg, while the genetic gain per generation for greasy fleece weight (kg) ranged from 0.016 to 0.024 in Menz. Generally, strong selection and shorter duration of ram use for breeding were the preferred options. The expected genetic gains are satisfactory but largely rely on accurate and continuous pedigree and performance recording.